We spend much of each summer in pursuit of the perfect preseason ranking.

We will fail as miserably as a Wall Street financier, of course.

If we can’t nail a three-week March Madness bracket, what possible hope do we have we of coming close to figuring out a five-month season? Yet, we try, applying the logic of past records and returning starters with a few basic hunches. And, in my case, by searching for those statistics that will unlock the secrets of the coming season as if it were a case out of “Numb3rs.”

Silly, I know. Statistics lie. But eyes deceive, especially if you happen to catch a player on just the right or wrong day. I continue to crunch the numbers until my brain hurts.

Faithful readers might know that I’m a firm believer in the “Larry Bird formula,” which essentially is a plus-minus system of evaluating positive and negative statistics. I will plug in the overall statistics of the top players, then re-evaluate the best of them by pulling out only their games against Top 25 teams. When the best play their best against the best, we have an All-American. Right?

Each summer, we tinker. Last summer, we applied the formula to the returning players on top teams. This summer, we applied the re-evaluated rankings to the top teams. Hang with me. Rather than use only games against a highly subjective, often flawed grouping of Top 25 teams, however, we pulled out each player’s stats against only NCAA Tournament teams seeded 12 or higher (a line of demarcation that typically separates the at-large teams from the lower-conference champions). The NCAA criteria gave us a larger pool of games to evaluate.

Hypothetically, the more games, the better the accuracy. And it allowed us to better judge those players from smaller schools that might not play a Top 25 opponent but are likely to have crossed paths with an NCAA Tournament team at sometime during the season.

We think we might be on to something.

Consider this: Four out of every five players’ ratings fell when re-evaluated using only game against only NCAA Tournament teams. Often, they fell considerably.

Four out of five.

That made it even easier to identify to those 20 percent who truly can be called gamers.

Everyone knows about Davidson’s Stephen Curry and his NCAA Tournament run.  A deeper look at the stats also gives us guys like Baylor’s Curtis Jerrells, Gonzaga’s Jeremy Pargo and Wake Forest’s Jeff Teague, as well as slightly lesser lights such as Michigan State’s Goran Suton, Miami’s Dwayne Collins and Purdue’s Chris Kramer.

Why Jerrells? He averaged 20.1 points in “significant” games and 15.3 overall. He was held to six points or less in only five games – against Centenary, Mississippi Valley State, Brown, Colorado and Texas Tech. He also had five games of 24 points or more – against Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Purdue. Isn’t that how a star player is supposed to pick his spots?

Similarly, there’s Pargo, who averaged 17.6 ppg when it mattered most and 12.1 overall. The West Coast Conference player of the year scored four points or less in four games – against Texas Tech, Loyola Marymount, Portland and Santa Clara. He scored 22 or more in five games – against Connecticut, Oklahoma, Memphis, Saint Mary’s and in the WCC tournament championship game against San Diego.

And there’s Teague. As a freshman, he averaged 18.8 ppg against his six best opponents, 12.6 against the rest. He was twice held to fewer than six points – against Charlotte and Georgia. He scored 26 or more three times – against BYU, Miami and Duke.
Are we beginning to see the value to this exercise?

This also reveals unsung players who – if we’re reading these tea leaves correctly – might be ready to bust out. Kramer was easily overlooked after averaging only 6.8 ppg, though he was among national leaders with 2.3 steals per game. He had 14 points and four steals in a game against Louisville. Against Michigan State, he saved a career-high 19 points for one game and five steals for another.

Suton, who averaged 9.1 ppg, ended his season by making 11 of 14 shots and scoring 23 points in an NCAA Tournament game against eventual runner-up Memphis. Collins, who averaged 8.6 ppg, went 8 for 11 in an 18-point game against Clemson and 12 for 14 in a 26-point effort against Duke.

Just a few big games pulled from a long season? Perhaps. But these were also big performances in big games that also reveal a player’s potential.

Other gamers: San Diego’s Gyno Pomare, UCLA’s Josh Shipp, Arizona’s Chase Budinger, Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds, Florida’s Nick Calathes, Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, Syracuse’s Paul Harris, USC’s Daniel Hackett and UConn’s A.J. Price.

Price is a particularly interesting case. He was a BT first-team All-American who made no other All-America teams. D.J. Augustin of Texas was the consensus first-team All-America point guard.

Had the voting taken place in April, Memphis freshman Derrick Rose would have been everyone’s All-America point guard. After that, it should have been a tough choice between Augustin and Price. Let’s consider A.J. vs. D.J.:

Price averaged 19.6 points and 5.7 assists in 13 “significant” games, 11.4  and 5.9 against the rest.

Augustin averaged 18.2 points and 6.2 assists in 18 “significant” games, 21.5 and 5.4 against the rest.

Augustin, a good student whose family was displaced by Hurricane Katrina, had a more family-friendly story than Price, who was suspended one year for stealing laptops. And Augustin had a strong advocate in ESPN’s knowledgeable Fran Fraschilla, no small thing.

There’s no quarrel here with Augustin. If you’re asking who’s the better talent, it’s Augustin. He controlled the ends of games and usually was an offensive force.

But Augustin also went through one horrific mid-season shooting slump, making just 24.4 percent of his shots during an important six-game stretch that included games against Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Kansas and twice against Baylor. To his credit, Augustin refused to allow the slump to define him, averaging 22.6 ppg on 52.1-percent shooting over his final nine regular-season games.

Yet, the slump happened. Yes, the Longhorns still won five of those games – despite Augustin rather than because of him. How many consensus first-team All-Americans get to endure a spell like that?

Price was instrumental during UConn’s 10-game winning streak, and his value to the Huskies became even more obvious when his torn ACL led to a first-round upset loss to No. 13 seed San Diego that ended the Huskies’ NCAA Tournament hopes.

Price is still getting little love from the other preseason magazines. Presumably, that’s because of questions over his knee. Maybe it’s still about his past or something else that eludes me.

I’m just sayin’.

Here, we’re giving the knee the benefit of the doubt and including Price on a preseason All-America team with Calathes and consensus picks Curry, Tyler Hansbrough and Luke Harangody.

Of course, the ratings also reveal those who come up short in big games. We’re not here to call anyone out, but let’s just say that some of the biggest offenders were some of the most recognizable names in the most revered conferences. Often, the dips can go practically unnoticed. The scoring, rebounding and assists averages might remain about the same, but the turnovers rise and the shooting percentages drop by 100 points or more.

The big-game ratings work in evaluating teams, as well. The two with a trio of big-gamers – Michigan State and Purdue – will meet Feb. 17 in West Lafayette, Ind., and either March 7 or 8 in East Lansing, Mich. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Bo Ryan might have to work yet another miracle. His top three returning scorers combined to shoot just 34.1 percent in the Badgers’ 11 most significant games.

And the biggest of the big-gamers? Curry, you say? How about UT Martin’s Lester Hudson.  In games against Memphis, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and UNLV, the 6-foot-2 guard averaged 31.3 points and 10.0 rebounds.

We think we might be on to something.

Until the season begins, at least.