I’m going to give you a long shot to make the Final Four. It’s a team that was overlooked in all the preseason polls that I saw, and it’s coached by a man who doesn’t get as much appreciation as he has earned. But the players have a name across the front of their jerseys that means something: KENTUCKY.

Yes, I realize that defending national champion Florida has most of its best players back. And, yes, I realize that LSU and Alabama also figure to be national Top 10 teams. And, geez, here comes Tennessee, with a native Kentuckian as its star – that would be Chris Lofton -- and that godawful fight song.

I just think it’s a mistake to disregard the sport’s most winning program just because it dipped to 22-13 last season – and, by the way, how many programs would love to have a record like that?

I promise you will not see many big men this year who are better than 6-foot-10 junior Randolph Morris, who missed the first part of last season because of an NCAA eligibility investigation. When he came back, he made the Wildcats a different – and better – team.

I promise that junior guards Joe Crawford and Rameal Bradley will be much better without Rajon Rondo around. Every time Rondo dribbled the ball last season, which was a lot, he was thinking about the NBA, not UK. Coach Tubby Smith had to play him because he was the team’s most talented player. But he got an “F” in chemistry, the most important hoops course of all.

I also think – won’t promise, but think – that newcomers Michael Porter, Derrick Jasper, Perry Stevenson, and Jodie Meeks will prove to be important contributors. Smith has a good record in recruiting players who become overachievers, Chuck Hayes being Exhibit A.

And what if Bobby Perry keeps building on the talent he displayed at the end of last season? Or if 7-foot Jared Carter, a native Kentuckian, becomes the serious contributor he has shown flashes of being?

But don’t take my word for it. Here’s what Florida Coach Billy Donovan said at the Southeastern Conference preseason media gabfest:

“I think Kentucky is one of those teams that has more coming back than we had a year ago…they can have an unbelievable year…they are one of those teams that could have an off-the-chart year…they can get to a Final Four.”

Blowing smoke? Maybe. But Donovan knows something about the Kentucky mystique. He worked on Coach Rick Pitino’s Wildcat staff in the early ‘90s, so he saw, close up and personal, how that jersey made better players of everyone who put it on and how those national championship banners worked their way into every player’s psyche.

Yet there’s no question Smith must do the coaching job of his life. His comfort zone has shrunk to almost nothing. Another so-so season will be unacceptable in Lexington, as well it should be. Slippage can become a regular thing – does UCLA come to mind? – unless it’s stopped before it can take on a life of its own.

There are some Kentucky fans, no question, who will never forgive Smith for not being Adolph Rupp or Pitino. They grouse about his grind-it-out offense, which doesn’t produce points easily or quickly. They gripe about his ball-line defense, which doesn’t create as many exciting turnovers as a Pitino press. They go bonkers over his perceived mediocre recruiting.

But the philosophy is as solid as the man himself. It’s not flashy, but it works, provided he can find the players who buy into his blue-collar mentality. Tubby Smith is meat and potatoes, not New York chic. He’s off-the-rack more than Armani. He actually has much more in common with the coal miners of Eastern Kentucky than they will probably ever know.

And let’s not forget that most of his players stay for four years and graduate.

And that he’s a solid family man and role model and civic leader.

Hard to believe, but this will be the 10th season since C.M. Newton picked Smith to replace Pitino. It has proven to be an inspired choice because, when you look at the hard, cold numbers, Tubby’s accomplishments are more than solid. They are remarkable, especially considering how much more basketball-intensive his SEC rival programs have become during his years in Lexington.

Asked about the anniversary at SEC Media Day, Smith said, “There is always a new team, a new group. It’s like a teacher getting ready for school. There are new students every year. That’s what I embrace and fires me up.”

I’ve often asked Tubby’s critics whom they would replace him with. Donovan is a popular choice. Pitino is out of the question, as are Roy Williams and Coach K. Tom Izzo might be a possibility. But, bottom line, Tubby’s as good as they come, all things considered, and I think he’s going to prove it this season.

It’s difficult to imagine Kentucky, of all programs, as a Final Four long shot. But it is and, naturally, I always pull for the underdog. We’ll talk again in April.