The recording of statistics and game outcomes is not a new concept. From the beginnings of competitive professional sports in the United States, performances have been recorded. However recently Video (and DVD) analysis has provided coaches with a means of reviewing large quantities information and formulating conclusions. As coaching feedback has been predominantly subjective, with little quantitative data to support coaching decisions, performance analysis techniques offer coaches the ability to validate decisions based on empirical evidence.
A basic tool of performance analysis is the team stat. comparison which compares variables such as Field goals, three points, free throws, rebounds, blocks, fouls ect. The information from these areas gives coaches a broad idea of the events within the game. However by cross referencing certain variables and modifying the parameters more specific information can be obtained.
In a recent study, the implications of both zone and man-to-man defence were evaluated using the six games series of the 2005/2006 NBA Finals. From these games a total of 1073 shooting events were recorded, below is a break down of the type of shots taken.
Fast breaks, and post moves were identified as separate variables to isolate shooting attempts from outside the key. As can be seen in the above table when fast breaks and post moves are considered as independent shooting attempts from two and three point range are similar.
Jump Shooting
One of the main findings was 86.86% of all shooting attempts took place in under a second. As no shooting attempts took over 1.5 seconds this would suggest that defenders remained close to their assigned area or player for the majority of the series, thus indicating a high level of defensive efficacy. Furthermore only 55 of 1073 shots were recorded as unguarded. Such a low number of unguarded shots reflects effective defensive organisation by winning teams.
This research showed that of total events 82.95% was against man-to-man and the remaining 17.05% against zone. A visual representation of this can be seen in the graph below.
A closer analysis of two and three point shooting, against both defence’s shows that although the values are different, the shooting percentages are similar, as can be seen in the following table. This implies that jump shots from two and three point range against either man-to-man or zone defence had equal potential for success, therefore the type of defence used does not influence jump shooting from two or three point range.
Overall winning teams shot 78.45% two point attempts and 21.55% three point attempts of total shooting events. If shooting events from within the key are excluded the results differ significantly, winning teams recorded 55.92% two point efforts and 44.08% three point efforts. Shooting percentages from two and three point area against zone and man-to-man defences for winning teams were higher than losing teams. Losing teams showed large differences in shooting in the following areas;
1. 3 Point shooting against man-to-man 42.59% (Win) 27.63% (Loss)
2. 2 Point shooting against Zone 40.91% (Win) 27.27% (Loss)
3. 3 Point shooting against Zone 45.95% (Win) 27.27% (Loss)
Post Moves
Shooting attempts from inside the key displayed interesting results. A complete break down of events within the post can be seen below.
Overall post moves accounted for 47.06% of total events. Within the post area man-to-man recorded a higher success rate than zone defence for both teams. Losing teams were fouled more in zone defence and blocked more times in both defences. The overall lower levels of fouls and increased numbers for blocks recorded on offensive actions by losing teams is an indication of effective defensive play by winning teams. Block and fouls occur far more frequently within the post area than either two or three point range. Differences in fouls and blocks from two and three point range against man-to-man defence and zone is marginal.
The highest amount of shooting attempts was within the post area against man-to-man defence (84.45%). Two point shots from man-to-man defence were also a similar percentage (80.87%). Three point shooting was the main offensive effort against zone defence. It is possible as the attacking team recognised that man-to-man defence was being used post play and two point shots were favoured.
Conclusions from this research suggest when defending against teams with strong post players and medium to low percentage shooters zone defence would be favoured over man-to-man. However if teams were defending against a team with high percentage two and three point shooters and less skilled post players man-to-man defence would be preferable.
The parameters of this study were similar to that of current team stat. comparisons to demonstrate the different level of information that can be obtained by establishing the correct initial parameters, by the inclusion of shooting areas this study was able to establish a greater picture of shooting trends. Other studies could present quantitative data on questions such as why a team tends to start slowly, or why a team has difficulty closing out a game. The same techniques could be used to compile a comprehensive database on a team throughout their season. In today’s world of competitive sport performance analysis can give coaches a significant advantage over opposing teams by providing coaches with accurate data on a teams strength and weakness, and providing quantitative data to what would otherwise be a subjective coaching decision.
